Everyone is wondering whether or not Congress will take up the issue of immigration reform in 2009.

There are number of factors that will determine this, none of which has anything directly to do with immigration.

Self-Deportation

First, the bad economy and recent enforcement measures have caused many illegal aliens to self-deport.

This has relieved some of the pressure on democrats to do something immediately about the illegal immigration problem, while at the same time reducing resistance to immigration reform from anti-illegal immigration advocates.

Fewer Job Opportunities

Second, the loss of American jobs has increased the competition and made it much more difficult for illegal aliens to find employment in America.

This has resulted in fewer aliens attempting to enter the United States’ illegally.

American Unemployment Rate

Third, and perhaps most importantly, if Obama and the Democrats enacted a bill that gave illegal immigrants a clear path to citizenship at a time when American workers are losing their jobs in record numbers, their approval ratings would plummet.

Even though the Democrats control both houses of Congress and the executive branch and could pass an anything they want to pass, immigration reform remains a hot button issue and, if history is any kind of teacher, we know that politicians don’t avoid controversial issues unless and until they are forced to address them.

There is, of course, pressure on Democrats to enact immigration reform that includes some path to citizenship for illegal aliens.

However, all Obama has to do until the time is ripe (and safe) for massive reform is cut back on enforcement.

This would signal to the illegal immigrants and their lobbies that at some point in the future, there will be immigration reform.

Conclusion

There is no doubt that Obama and the Democrats will enact immigration reform at some point in Obama’s first term.

My prediction is, however, that Congress will address this issue in earnest only after the American economy begins to recover and unemployment rates plummet.